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						<a href=/i/discuss/qDiscuss?keyword=AUTHOR:456a31494e4b3732326951506230304c7638696a70513d3d class='font13_ SM_font_'><img src=/i/qImage?filecode=4C4AAB97D7927EEFBC2287127C3C42FA44DF93E2668B48AA17A2BF7E589C83FC0B5AEF4E31C1BE class=circleImg width=30><img src=/images/account_type/1.png hspace=3 width=22> <img src=/images/blank.gif width=5 height=1> 初哥</a> <img src=/images/blank.gif width=10 height=1> <font class='SM_font_ font13_'>2年前</font>
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						<font class='SM_font font20_'>初哥即市預測-2022/05/06</font>
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						<font class='SM_font word_break'>長假當前，外圍局面難測，美股非常波動，暫採取觀望態度(包括恒指、期指及股票建議)  </font>
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					<font class='SM_font' id=content_5271>可惜我现在才看到初哥的提示😭  </font>
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								<font class='SM_font' id=content_5272>😄咁大家要習慣每朝都上來阿周財經了  </font>
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<h1>鄧建初：眾人皆醉我獨醒　逆向思維觀市況</h1>
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<div class="paragraph">2000年的復活節，初哥往美國旅行，臨出發前眼見市況不俗，於是繼續持倉。落機後，從導遊口中得知港股跌1,000點，不禁心中一沉，盤算帳面已虧損20萬餘元，變相去了一次非常昂貴的旅遊。</div>
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<div class="paragraph">那些年，手機仍是2G時代，海外落盤買賣要用長途電話聯絡，為免影響心情，不聞不問算了。回港後的股市是上升或下跌，事隔多年，初哥也忘記了，只知道上了寶貴的一課，後期去旅行也不敢再持貨。直至智能手機普及，這已經不是問題了。</div>
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<div class="paragraph">今年復活節假期，因疫情關係，不能外遊。歷史再度重演，假期後復市，港股連跌五日合共大瀉1,647點，顯示復活節持倉的風險。</div>
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<div class="paragraph">長假期股市難測兼下行居多，造成心理陰影，所以假期前多數窄幅波動，成交淡薄。正因同一時空皆有不敢買貨、甚至傾向沽貨離場的群體思維，當上周五中午前，恒生指數突然拗腰彈升200餘點時，普遍股民懵然不知，又或猶豫不決，甚至呆立當場，以致錯失了其後下午升逾800點的短線賺錢良機。</div>
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<div class="paragraph">港股忽然一洗頹風，領軍噴升的科技股，升幅逾10%以上者比比皆是。諷刺的是，股神巴菲特拍檔芒格，在低位大幅減持的阿里巴巴(<a class=SM_font_green href="https://money18.on.cc/info/hk/liveinfo_quote_09988.html" target="_blank" class="stockNum">09988</a>)，表現出眾，漲幅逾15%，應驗了「世事難料」的哲理。</div>
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<div class="paragraph">以上情節，引證了炒股需要逆向思維的重要性。當人人想去接近時，市場就像是捉迷藏般反道而行。</div>
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<div class="paragraph">在賭馬的世界同樣如是，大熱門也有分公眾大熱門、或是大戶大熱門飛。前者是大部分馬迷都以為贏得出的2倍以上的大熱門，遺憾的是，大熱倒灶例子屢見不鮮。反而熱至不足2倍的熱門，尤其初出的新馬，散戶馬迷通常不敢沾手，那些落大注飛，應是有識見的大戶飛，勝出率出奇地高，箇中原因，只有多年賭馬資歷、經驗豐富的馬迷才能領悟。而賠率奇冷，但具直搏率的實力馬，普遍馬迷眼見越買越冷，只敢旁觀，原因是上賽表現甚差，卻往往潛藏爆冷的契機。</div>
<div class="paragraph">&nbsp;</div>
<div class="paragraph">股票市場何其相似，股民多用上次最近期的表現來套用於今次大市的表現，但初哥留意到，如果能用相反理論，有機會捕捉到賺錢的良機。正是「人人皆醉我獨醒」，實行「孤身走我路」逆向思維的投資哲學。</div>
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             <td> <label class="switch"> <input type="checkbox" id=ScreenMode> <span class="slider round"></span> </label> </td> </tr></table> <div class=h30> <img src=/images/blank.gif width=1 height=10><br> <font face='Noto Sans TC'> <a href=# onclick='LanguageChange(1);' class='White font17'>繁</a>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             </font> - <font face='Noto Sans SC'> <a href=# onclick='LanguageChange(2);' class='White font17'>簡</a>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             </font> <!-- - <a href=# onclick='LanguageChange(0);' class='White'>Eng</a>-->
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             </center> </font> </div> <div id=CookiePopup style='display:none;'> <table width=100% class=MaxWidth800 align=center cellpadding=8><tr> <td><b class=font14_>我們的網站使用Cookie</b> <div class=h10></div> <font class=font13_>我們使用Cookie以確保網站能正常運作，並改善你的使用我們網站時的使用體驗，<a href=/cookiepolicy class=Green3>點擊這裡了解更多</a></font> </td> <td align=right><input type=button class='button0 font14_'  value='接受' style="width:70px;" onclick="jih('CookiePopup'); setCookie('ACCEPTCOOKIE',1);"></td> </tr></table> </div> <img src=/images/blank.gif width=1 height=1 id=horizontalextender class=freeImage> <div id=fullscreen_loading style='display:none;'> <div class=posAbs style='top: 50%; width:100% ; text-align:center; color:#fff;' id=fullscreen_loading_txt>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             緩衝處理中 <br> <img src=/images/loading10.gif vspace=10 height=25></div> </div> <div id=Ticker class='SM posRel' style="position:fixed;bottom:0px;width:100%;height:48px;left:-100000;">     <!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN --> <div class="tradingview-widget-container"> <div class="tradingview-widget-container__widget"></div>   <script type="text/javascript" src="https://s3.tradingview.com/external-embedding/embed-widget-ticker-tape.js" async>    {  "symbols": [ { "description": "道瓊斯", "proName": "FOREXCOM:DJI" }, { "description": "納斯達克", "proName": "FOREXCOM:NSXUSD" }, { "description": "標準普爾500", "proName": "FOREXCOM:SPXUSD" }, { "description": "蘋果公司", "proName": "AAPL" }, { "description": "Alphabet公司", "proName": "GOOGL" }, { "description": "特斯拉", "proName": "TSLA" },  { "description": "ROKU", "proName": "ROKU" },  { "description": "SQ", "proName": "SQ" },  { "description": "NVTA", "proName": "NVTA" },  { "description": "CRSP", "proName": "CRSP" },  { "description": "TDOC", "proName": "TDOC" },  { "description": "U", "proName": "U" },  { "description": "COIN", "proName": "COIN" },  { "description": "SHOP", "proName": "SHOP" },  { "description": "ZM", "proName": "ZM" },  { "description": "WORK", "proName": "WORK" },  { "description": "黃金", "proName": "TVC:GOLD" }, { "description": "原油", "proName": "TVC:USOIL" } ] , "showSymbolLogo": false, "colorTheme": "light", "isTransparent": true, "displayMode": "adaptive",   "largeChartUrl": "https://aconomist.com/i/stock", "locale": "zh_TW" } </script> </div> <!-- TradingView Widget END -->  <div class='posAbs SM mobilehide financehide' style='width:100px;height:38px;bottom:0px;left:40px;display:none;'><a href=https://aconomist.com><img src=/images/logo_finance.png width=80 class=SM_img></a></div>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             </div> <div class='SM' style='width:40px;height:38px;bottom:0px;left:0px;display:none;position:fixed;' id=minTicker><a href=# onclick="toggleTicker(0); return false;"><img src=/images/min.png width=20 hspace=10 vspace=10 class=SM_img></a></div>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             <div class='SM' style='width:40px;height:38px;bottom:0px;left:0px;display:none;position:fixed;' id=maxTicker><a href=# onclick="toggleTicker(1); return false;"><img src=/images/max.png width=20 hspace=10 vspace=10 class=SM_img></a></div>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             <script> // Guest Arrangements
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             function GuestCheck() { if ('' == '') { jch('GuestHide'); jcs('GuestShow'); } else { jcs('GuestHide'); jch('GuestShow'); } } // Hide PanelVerticalMenu on Start
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $('#PanelVerticalMenu').hide();
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             // btnVerticalMenu Event
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $("#btnVerticalMenu").click(function() {
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             if ($('#PanelVerticalMenu').is(":hidden")) {
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $('#PanelVerticalMenu').show();
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $('#btnVerticalMenu').attr('src','/images/back.png');
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $('#header').css('padding-left',210);
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             objRotate('btnVerticalMenu',180); if (isMobile()) { $('#horizontalextender').width(1000);
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $('#horizontalextender').height(1);
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             } } else { $('#PanelVerticalMenu').hide();
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $('#btnVerticalMenu').attr('src','/images/menu.png');
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $('#header').css('padding-left',0);
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             objRotate('btnVerticalMenu',180); $('#horizontalextender').width(1);
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $('#horizontalextender').height(1);
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             } return false; }); // ScreenMode
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ScreenMode = getCookie('ScreenMode'); if (ScreenMode==1) $('#ScreenMode').prop('checked', true);
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             if (isNull(ScreenMode)) ScreenMode = 0; setScreenMode(ScreenMode); // for mobile re-open which may not read cookies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             setTimeout(function(){ if ($('#ScreenMode').is(":checked")) setScreenMode(1);
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             }, 500); setTimeout(function(){ if ($('#ScreenMode').is(":checked")) setScreenMode(1);
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             }, 1000); $("#ScreenMode").change(function() {
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             if(this.checked) { setScreenMode(1); } else { setScreenMode(0); } }); // toggleTicker
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             if (getCookie('showTicker')==1 || getCookie('showTicker')=='') toggleTicker(1); else toggleTicker(0); function toggleTicker(status) { if (status==0) { setCookie('showTicker',0,250); $('#Ticker').css('left',-100000);
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             jih('minTicker'); jis('maxTicker') } if (status==1) { setCookie('showTicker',1,250); $('#Ticker').css('left',0);
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             jis('minTicker'); jih('maxTicker') } } // startshow finishshow, init vimeo player 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             var finishloading_Interval = setInterval(function(){ try { jiv('DLLM');   // script finish loading jobs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               //////////////////////////////
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $('.startshow').hide(); $('.finishshow').show();    $('#PanelVerticalMenu').css('left',0);
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             var w = $( window ).width(); if (w > 800) { $('.mobilehide').show(); $('.mobileshow').hide(); } else { $('.mobilehide').hide(); $('.mobileshow').show(); } if (isIpad()) { $('.ipadhide').hide(); $('.ipadshow').show(); } if ($(window).width() < 350) { $('.narrowhide').hide(); }  //financehide financeshow
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             if (InStr(location.href,'aconomist.com')) { jcs('financeshow'); jch('financehide'); } else { jcs('financehide'); jch('financeshow'); }  // hide tick in achow.tv
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             if (!InStr(location.href,'aconomist.com')) { jih('Ticker'); jih('maxTicker'); jih('minTicker'); }  // ScrollVideo scroll by 30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             setTimeout(function(){  if (isMobile()) $('#ScrollVideo').scrollLeft(30);
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             }, 1000); ///////////////////////////////
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ///////////////////////////////
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             clearInterval(finishloading_Interval); } catch(ex) {} }, 100); // hash to scroll
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             var scroll_hash; setInterval(function(){ scroll_hash = Replace(location.hash,'#',''); 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             if (InStr(scroll_hash,'SCROLL_')) { //log(scroll_hash);
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             try { ScrollToElement(scroll_hash,-100); location.hash = ''; if ($('#PanelVerticalMenu').is(":visible")) $("#btnVerticalMenu").trigger('click');
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             } catch(ex){} } }, 500); // youtube video
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             var tag = document.createElement('script'); tag.src = 'https://www.youtube.com/iframe_api';
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             var firstScriptTag = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; firstScriptTag.parentNode.insertBefore(tag, firstScriptTag); var player; function onYouTubeIframeAPIReady() { player = new YT.Player('topPlayer', { height: '100%', width: '100%', videoId: 'xxx', playerVars: {rel: 0, showinfo: 0, ecver: 2, modestbranding: 1, playsinline: 1} }); } // detect if printing
 var beforePrint = function() { jih('header'); jih('Ticker'); }; var afterPrint = function() { jis('header'); jih('Ticker'); }; if (window.matchMedia) { var mediaQueryList = window.matchMedia('print'); mediaQueryList.addListener(function(mql) { if (mql.matches) { beforePrint(); } else { afterPrint(); } }); } window.onbeforeprint = beforePrint; window.onafterprint = afterPrint; </script>  <div id=top_menu style='position:fixed; width:100% ; left:50%;transform: translateX(-50%); text-align:center; top:50px; padding:10px' class='MaxWidth500 SM'> <a href=/discuss class='SM_font_green font14_'>討論區主頁</a> <img src=/images/blank.gif width=5 height=1> <a href=# onclick="discuss_new_topic(0,0,0); return false;" class='SM_font_green font14_'>開始新話題</a> <img src=/images/blank.gif width=5 height=1>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             <input class='tbx_aline2 SM_border_green SM_font_green font12_' style='width:75px; padding:3px;' id=discuss_tbxkeyword><img src=/images/search_green.png width=25 class='pointer' onclick="discuss_search();">
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             </div> <div id=new_topic style=' width:95%; height:600px; overflow-y:auto; top:-1000000px; left:50%; transform: translateX(-50%); position:fixed; padding:20px 50px 50px 50px; border:1px solid #eee;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             z-index:60000;' class='SM MaxWidth900 SM_border SM'> </div> <script> execScreenMode(); var urlParams = new URLSearchParams(window.location.search); jiv('discuss_tbxkeyword',urlParams.get('keyword')); if (InStr(urlParams.get('keyword'),'AUTHOR:')) jiv('discuss_tbxkeyword','<NULL>'); if (jiv('discuss_tbxkeyword')=='') initTBX('discuss_tbxkeyword','搜尋討論區'); $('#discuss_tbxkeyword').keypress(function (event) {
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             if (event.keyCode == 13) { discuss_search(); } }); function discuss_search() { if (jiv('discuss_tbxkeyword')=='搜尋討論區') jiv('discuss_tbxkeyword','<NULL>'); //var keyword = Traditionalized(jiv('discuss_tbxkeyword'));
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             var keyword = jiv('discuss_tbxkeyword'); var keyword_encoded = urlencode(keyword); if (keyword_encoded=='') location.href = 'https://achow.tv/discuss';
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             else location.href = '/discuss?keyword='+keyword_encoded; } </script>